The Window Is Open: Why Democrats Have Their Best Shot at Rural America in Nearly Two Decades
I grew up on a small farm near a small town in South Dakota, and I got into this work at RuralOrganizing.org years ago because I was convinced that rural Democrats are the most potent, untapped power source in American politics.
Over the last few years, we have built a national network of over 700,000 advocates for small towns and rural communities through digital campaigns to protect the Postal Service, defend Medicaid and Social Security, and pass important rural economic development programs such as the RECOMPETE grants included in the CHIPS and Science Act. We built this network together because we believe rural Americans deserve a seat at the table. And we believe that when we have that seat, we will change the direction of this country.
Here’s the demographic reality that should keep every political strategist up at night: By the year 2040, 70 percent of Americans will live in just 15 states. That means the remaining 30 percent of the population, living in 35 disproportionately rural states, will have an outsized opportunity to shape the future of American politics. This is especially true in the Senate, where every state from Wyoming to California gets the same two votes. Rural Americans are not a distraction. We are the future of our democracy.
And yet, rural Democrats are almost always an afterthought in American politics. That’s a strategic disaster when you consider that 19 states have more exurban and rural Democrats than urban and suburban Democrats. Read that again: In nearly two out of every five states, the Democratic base is predominantly rural. Ignoring those voters is just bad math.
Percentage of Democrats Who Live in Rural/Exurban Areas
President Barack Obama received 42 percent of the national rural vote in 2008, and that remains the high-water mark for Democrats in rural America. Since then, the Democratic presidential vote share in non-metro counties has fallen significantly. In 2016, the bottom fell out, and we have barely moved the needle since.
But something is changing. Right now, Democrats have the biggest and best opportunity to engage rural voters that I have seen in nearly two decades.
The cost, chaos, and corruption voters see in Washington are making millions of rural Americans rethink how we will vote in the future. According to the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll from March 2026, roughly 60 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track. That’s not just a big-city phenomenon. Even in rural America, where Donald Trump has long enjoyed his strongest support, the numbers have shifted dramatically. Half of rural voters now say the country is headed in the wrong direction, a sharp increase from last year.
Here’s the number that should make every Democrat pay attention: At the end of Biden’s presidency in mid-2024, just 29 percent of rural voters chose the Democratic candidate on a generic congressional ballot. Today, that number has jumped 10 points. The most recent Marist poll from early March showed 39 percent of rural voters favoring the Democrat on the generic ballot. And small-town voters are even more encouraging, coming in at 45 percent.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating in rural America has dropped from 59 percent in February 2025 to 51 percent in March 2026. That is an eight-point slide in his strongest territory in only one month.
But the biggest movement is happening among the working people who were supposed to be Trump’s base. Among Americans without a college degree, Trump’s job approval has cratered from 49 percent in February 2025 to just 39 percent in March 2026. That’s a 10-point drop. Compare that to college graduates, whose opinion of Trump has moved just one point over the same period.
Rural voters have been hit hard by the economic transitions of recent years. Their communities were devastated by automation and the hollowing out of manufacturing, and now most of us are terrified of AI and what it means for the jobs that remain. We were promised an economic revival. What we got was chaos, rising costs, and a government more interested in corrupt profit than problem-solving.
But rural Americans have been terrified to speak out for the last two decades. The social cost was just too high: You risked alienating your neighbors, your customers, and your congregation. But right now, we are seeing a revival of the rural base that I have never witnessed in my career.
Rural Americans are fed up, and we are starting to speak up and show up.
I have heard from hundreds of rural leaders who are seeing dozens of people at local No Kings rallies and immigrant support trainings in tiny towns that have never seen people turn out to progressive functions.
Last year in Virginia, with the help of Rural Ground Game, Democrats fielded candidates in all 100 seats for the House of Delegates — the first time that’s happened in decades. And turnout for the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race was higher than in the 2018 blue wave midterms. This year, Democrats in North Carolina and Texas have candidates running in every single state legislative race. Idaho will have candidates in every legislative district, too. In all of those races, rural voters will be hearing directly from Democratic candidates, some in places where that hasn’t happened in a long time.
Last summer, I went to the No Kings rally in my hometown of Brookings, South Dakota, and 300 people showed up. This is a town that struggles to get a handful of people to show up to a county Democrats meeting. It’s clear something has fundamentally shifted.
The window is open, and now is our best shot to build a coalition that delivers concrete wins for rural Americans.
So we need to empower the rural base to reach out to their friends, family, and neighbors, because we are our best messengers. An Iowa farmer talking to his neighbor about Medicaid cuts is a thousand times more persuasive than any ad buy or cable news appearance. And a small business owner in Montana explaining how tariff chaos is crushing her bottom line carries more weight than any Beltway policy paper.
But Democrats must show they’re a solid alternative by focusing on concrete solutions that will bring down the cost of living in small towns and rural communities. Rural voters want a higher quality of life with a lower cost of living. That’s especially true for Americans who entered the workforce straight out of high school and are now watching their paychecks stretch thinner every month. They don’t want rhetoric. They want results: Lower prescription drug costs. Affordable broadband. Good-paying jobs that don’t require moving to a city. A post office that still delivers its mail.
The data is clear. The momentum is real. The question is whether Democrats will seize this moment by investing in rural voters or let them slip away. Rural America is ready. The window is open. But it will not stay open forever.
I've spent most of the last 15 years in rural areas and I feel like I've seen the shift you're talking about in the last couple years or so. I think the Ds can do well in the upcoming election but only if they're running Ds that don't seem run-of-the-mill. More like Graham Platner than Chuck Schumer, I mean.
We do need to strike while the window is open. But asking "Democrats" to do it is not a concrete suggestion in my rural area.
My state Democratic party, one manifestation of "Democrats," lacks the awareness, staff and will to seize the moment in this way
Local Democratic candidates, another manifestation of "Democrats" can easily make it part of their message, but they lack the resources to reach a very big audience.
As individuals rural Democrats don't know how and where to speak out. As you write, the fear has prevented a lot of people from developing the skills, relationships and channels to do so. Where can we get guidance from people who are really good at it?
We should be hitting the cost of fuel and fertilizer very hard with a message that resonates this week. But where is that message? Who is getting it in the rural and agricultural press. How can we help as individuals?